The European Commission’s Spring 2018 Economic Forecast shows that the period of sustained growth that began in mid-2013 is expected to remain strong at 2.3% in 2018 and ease only slightly in 2019.
Nevertheless, it identified primarily downside risks, several of which have been materialising in the meantime, such as the escalating trade protectionism, financial market volatility experienced in recent months as well as faster-than-expected rises in US interest rates in response to pro-cyclical fiscal stimulus in the US.
These risks reinforce once again the need for an ambitious push to complete the architecture of the Economic and Monetary Union and to strengthen the capacity of euro area Member States to absorb structural changes such as the ongoing digital revolution.
This Quarterly Report on the Euro Area looks at
- the importance of economic resilience to the Economic and Monetary Union;
- the synchronisation of financial cycles in the euro area;
- the macro-economic implications of the digital economy; and
- a model framework for analysing tax and benefit reforms.